Crude oil prices could skyrocket toward $150 per barrel if hostilities between the United States and Iran resume in earnest, according to a report by Rystad Energy. The Oslo-headquartered energy research firm warned that the latest escalation has pushed an April ceasefire to its most fragile point yet. The heightened geopolitical tension has already triggered a sharp reaction across global financial markets, sending crude oil prices upward while causing U.S. equities and other stock markets to stumble.
A full-scale conflict threatens to trigger the most severe supply disruption in the modern oil era. Experts estimate that an active confrontation could potentially shut in 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output across six Gulf producers. Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, noted that the market remains highly volatile. Brent front-month prices recently spiked to around $94.5 per barrel before easing slightly to $93, reflecting deep uncertainty over whether the escalation will remain a containable episode or devolve into a broader war.
Despite the severe risk, analysts point out that three primary shock absorbers could moderate the immediate impact of the disruption. First, record-level releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have driven U.S. exports to historic highs. Second, China’s reduced crude imports have cooled global demand. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port provides a crucial alternative infrastructure pathway, allowing approximately 5 million bpd of crude to safely bypass the highly vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
